Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
ADP AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC
Fiscal Q1 FY2027 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-28
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 28, 2026 at 7:02 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 28, 2026 at 7:02 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Poor — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal -1.6% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+41.2%
Net income — year over year
$1.4B vs $963.2M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+17.6%
Revenue — year over year
$5.9B vs $5.0B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record. | ||||
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Raising full year guidance for revenue and adjusted diluted EPS growth.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
3
new risk disclosures added
4
old ones removed
FY2026 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“Our businesses collect, host, store, transfer, process, disclose, use, secure, retain and dispose of personal and business information, and collect, hold and transmit client funds, and a security or privacy breach may da…”
New risk disclosure #2
“Failure to comply with, compliance with or changes in, laws and regulations applicable to our businesses could have a materially adverse effect on our reputation, results of operations or financial condition, or have oth…”
New risk disclosure #3
“Our industry is subject to rapid technological change, including as a result of AI, and if we fail to upgrade, enhance and expand our technology and services to meet client needs and preferences, the demand for our solut…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Net income: +41.2% year over year
(1,359,800,000 − 963,200,000) ÷ 963,200,000 = +41.2% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +17.6% year over year
(5,939,200,000 − 5,048,400,000) ÷ 5,048,400,000 = +17.6% YoY