Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
AEP AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · reported 2026-10-28
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 28, 2026 at 7:01 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 28, 2026 at 7:01 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Good — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -4.2% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2011Q1Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2011Q4
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+11.1%
Revenue — year over year
$6.0B vs $5.4B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+0.6%
Operating income — year over year
$1.4B vs $1.4B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 8 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEP’s incremental contracted load is expected to grow to 84 GW by 2031other · made 2026-10-28 | 84 GWby 2031 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
| Issuing operating earnings guidance ranges of $7.40 to $7.70 per share for 2028eps · made 2026-10-28 | $7.40 to $7.70FY2028 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
| Issuing operating earnings guidance ranges of $6.75 to $7.05 per share for 2027eps · made 2026-10-28 | $6.75 to $7.05FY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
| Expecting up to $21 billion of fixed cost offsets for residential customers from large load contractsother · made 2026-10-28 | up to $21 billionlife of the contracts | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
| Projecting operating earnings CAGR of 10%+ through 2031other · made 2026-10-28 | 10%+ CAGRthrough 2031 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
| Introducing operating earnings annual growth rate of 9% to 11% from 2027 through 2031other · made 2026-10-28 | 9% to 11% annual growth rate2027 through 2031 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
| Announcing $100 billion five-year capital plan, with a 13%+ rate base CAGR through 2031other · made 2026-10-28 | $100 billion capital plan, 13%+ rate base CAGRthrough 2031 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
| Forecasting 2026 operating earnings per share to be at or above high end of the $6.25 to $6.55 rangeeps · made 2026-10-28 | at or above $6.55FY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000004904-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $6.75–$7.05
StrengthensReported EPS above $7.05
InvalidatesReported EPS below $6.75
AEP expects 2026 operating earnings per share to be at or above the high end of the $6.25 to $6.55 range and introduced 2027 ($6.75 to $7.05) and 2028 ($7.40 to $7.70) ranges.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
15
new risk disclosures added
8
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“• The overturning or reversal on appeal of previously authorized recovery; and 19…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• Uncertainties with respect to the technological and financial aspects of decommissioning nuclear plants at the end of their licensed lives. There can be no assurance that I&M’s preparations or risk mitigation measures …”
New risk disclosure #3
“• AEP is exposed to changes in the price and availability of emission allowances.…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +11.1% year over year
(6,020,000,000 − 5,420,100,000) ÷ 5,420,100,000 = +11.1% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Operating income: +0.6% year over year
(1,360,000,000 − 1,351,500,000) ÷ 1,351,500,000 = +0.6% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $6.75–$7.05
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $7.05 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $6.75