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Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0

AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC

Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 26, 2026 · reported 2026-11-03
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 3, 2026 at 9:31 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months. from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change

Weakened

Legacy analysis

Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.

Reported facts

GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.

Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.

Earnings quality

From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

1 / 5
Poor — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal 14.5% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2019Q1Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2020Q4

Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.

1. Three decisive changes

Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.

+224.0%
Net income — year over year

$2.3B vs $709.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 27, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+146.9%
Operating income — year over year

$2.0B vs $806.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 27, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+66.0%
Gross profit — year over year

$6.2B vs $3.7B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 27, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

2. Was it already expected?

Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.

ItemActualExpectedGapClass
Consensus comparison coming soon.

3. Management consistency

Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.

PromiseTargetOutcomeStatusEvidence
No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record.

4. What matters next

One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.

The deciding condition

Revenue within $16.49B–$17.51B

StrengthensRevenue above $17.51B
InvalidatesRevenue below $16.49B
Guidance in management's words

For Q4 2026, AMD expects revenue of approximately $17 billion (+/- 3%) and a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 55%.

5. Risks that changed

New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.

No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
3
old ones removed

FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is about unchanged.

6. Evidence drawer

Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.

DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-27
Net income: +224.0% year over year
(2,297,000,000 − 709,000,000) ÷ 709,000,000 = +224.0% YoY
DC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-27
Operating income: +146.9% year over year
(1,990,000,000 − 806,000,000) ÷ 806,000,000 = +146.9% YoY
DC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-27
Gross profit: +66.0% year over year
(6,203,000,000 − 3,736,000,000) ÷ 3,736,000,000 = +66.0% YoY
WN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026
Revenue within $16.49B–$17.51B
Strengthens: Revenue above $17.51B · Invalidates: Revenue below $16.49B