Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
APA APA Corp
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-04
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Strong — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -13.0% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+115.3%
Net income — year over year
$747.0M vs $347.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+48.0%
Operating income — year over year
$1.3B vs $865.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 5 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Updated net debt target to $2 billionother · made 2026-11-04 | $2 billionyear-end | — | Pending | 8-K 0001841666-26-0000 |
| Expects to return at least 60% of 2026 free cash flow to shareholdersother · made 2026-11-04 | at least 60%FY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001841666-26-0000 |
| Established preliminary capital budget of $2.5 billion for 2027other · made 2026-11-04 | $2.5 billion2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001841666-26-0000 |
| Increased full-year 2026 free cash flow outlook to approximately $2.9 billionother · made 2026-11-04 | ~$2.9 billionfull-year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001841666-26-0000 |
| Reiterated $500 million run-rate cost savings across capital, lease operating expense and G&A by year-end 2026other · made 2026-11-04 | $500 millionyear-end 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001841666-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Full-year 2026 free cash flow outlook was increased to approximately $2.9 billion, and net debt target was lowered to $2 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
19
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +115.3% year over year
(747,000,000 − 347,000,000) ÷ 347,000,000 = +115.3% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +48.0% year over year
(1,280,000,000 − 865,000,000) ÷ 865,000,000 = +48.0% YoY