+146.4%
Operating income — year over year
$1.1B vs $455.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-04
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 4, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 4, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 6 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported revenue$6.1B
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Strong — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -5.0% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2018Q1Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2019Q4
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+100.2%
Gross profit — year over year
$1.1B vs $572.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+33.6%
Revenue — year over year
$2.2B vs $1.7B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 1 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Company expects gross ammonia production for the full year 2026 to be approximately 9.5 million tonsother · made 2026-11-04 | approximately 9.5 million tonsfull year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001324404-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Management projects full-year 2026 capital expenditures to be approximately $1.3 billion total, gross ammonia production around 9.5 million tons, and Blue Point One ammonia plant cost at approximately $3.7 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
31
new risk disclosures added
28
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“— any of which could have a material adverse impact on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Our operating results fluctuate due to seasonality. Our inability to predict future seasonal…”
New risk disclosure #2
“oceangoing vessels, adverse weather conditions, system failures, unscheduled downtime, labor difficulties or shortages, shutdowns, delays, accidents such as spills and derailments, vessel groundings and other accidents a…”
New risk disclosure #3
“arrangements we may enter into may involve significant risks and uncertainties, including the ability of us and our strategic partners to cooperate, us and our strategic partners having inconsistent interests or goals, o…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +146.4% year over year
(1,121,000,000 − 455,000,000) ÷ 455,000,000 = +146.4% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-30Gross profit: +100.2% year over year
(1,145,000,000 − 572,000,000) ÷ 572,000,000 = +100.2% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +33.6% year over year
(2,222,000,000 − 1,663,000,000) ÷ 1,663,000,000 = +33.6% YoY