Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
CL COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-30
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 30, 2026 at 7:02 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 30, 2026 at 7:02 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Good — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are 0.9% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+10.3%
Gross profit — year over year
$3.3B vs $3.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+9.2%
Revenue — year over year
$5.4B vs $4.9B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
-5.6%
Operating income — year over year
$1.0B vs $1.1B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 4 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On a non-GAAP (Base Business) basis, the Company expects 5% to 7% earnings per share growth for full year 2026.eps · made 2026-10-30 | 5% to 7% growthFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000021665-26-0000 |
| On a GAAP basis, the Company expects gross profit margin to be up and double-digit earnings per share growth for full year 2026.eps · made 2026-10-30 | double-digit growthFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000021665-26-0000 |
| The Company now expects organic sales growth to be broadly in line with its nine-month performance for full year 2026.revenue · made 2026-10-30 | broadly in line with nine-month performanceFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000021665-26-0000 |
| The Company now expects net sales to be up 4% to 5% for full year 2026.revenue · made 2026-10-30 | up 4% to 5%FY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000021665-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $0.05–$0.07
StrengthensReported EPS above $0.07
InvalidatesReported EPS below $0.05
Revenue within $0.04–$0.05
Strengthens: Revenue above $0.05Weakens: Revenue below $0.04The company narrowed net sales guidance to up 4% to 5%, raised gross profit margin expectations to up, and increased Base Business EPS growth guidance to 5% to 7%.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
20
new risk disclosures added
34
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“• exchange controls and other limits on our ability to import or export raw materials or finished product or to repatriate cash from overseas, including as a result of the war in Ukraine;…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• handling other processes involved in managing our business. Although we have a broad array of information and operational security measures in place, our IT/OT Systems, including those of third-party service providers …”
New risk disclosure #3
“• processing transactions, including employee payroll, employee and retiree benefits and payments to customers, suppliers and vendors;…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-30Gross profit: +10.3% year over year
(3,296,000,000 − 2,987,000,000) ÷ 2,987,000,000 = +10.3% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +9.2% year over year
(5,361,000,000 − 4,911,000,000) ÷ 4,911,000,000 = +9.2% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: -5.6% year over year
(1,016,000,000 − 1,076,000,000) ÷ 1,076,000,000 = -5.6% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $0.05–$0.07
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $0.07 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $0.05