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COP · Q3 2026

CONOCOPHILLIPS

Reported 2026-08-06
BEAT
48EarnIQ signal
↗

Confidence rising

Mild quarter-over-quarter shift

ConocoPhillips delivered strong earnings driven by higher prices, accelerated share repurchases, and achieved asset sale targets ahead of schedule.

  • ✓Guidance was maintained, with high specificity.
  • ✓Management tone registered as confident (85/100).
  • ✓EarnIQ detected 0 potential management deflections.
Headline–confidence gap

Headline confirmed

Management confidence reinforces the reported beat.

EPS: reported vs expected+11.3%$3.24 vs $2.91
Revenue: reported vs expected+2.8%$19.5B vs $19.0B
Guidance specificityHighMaintained
Market expectations supplied by Finnhub · Reported vs consensus estimate

We doubled our quarterly share repurchases, achieved our $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule, secured low cost of supply opportunities in the Middle East, and increased our LNG offtake to 12 MTPA.

Premium intelligence

The evidence behind the signal

Full report
Management language

Why confidence moved

“ConocoPhillips delivered strong second-quarter results with exceptional operational performance, record production from our peer-leading Permian position and disciplined execution across the business”
“We doubled our quarterly share repurchases, achieved our $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule”
“We are executing well, delivering on our strategy, and remain on track to achieve our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029.”
Guidance specificity
80/100

High specificity

Third-quarter 2026 production is expected to be 2.29 to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with all full-year guidance items remaining unchanged.

Pressure point
!

Global and regional changes in

0 potential deflections detected in management communication.

Narrative break

What changed

Acquisition of a 42% interest in a joint venture in the Kirkuk area of northern Iraq and re-entry agreement into Syria.

Q&A evidence

Management responses

No material Q&A deflections were detected.

Key positives
  • Delivered strong second-quarter earnings per share of $3.23 and adjusted EPS of $3.24, with total average realized price up 36% year-over-year.
  • Achieved $5 billion asset disposition target ahead of schedule by signing agreements to sell noncore Lower 48 assets for $1.7 billion.
  • Doubled share repurchases in the second quarter, increasing total shareholder distributions to $3.0 billion while remaining on track for a 45% return of CFO in 2026.
Key risks
  • Global and regional changes in demand, supply, prices, or differentials affecting oil and gas, including ongoing military conflicts and OPEC production quotas.
  • Potential failures or delays in achieving expected reserve or production levels from existing and future developments due to operating hazards and drilling risks.
  • Significant operational or investment changes imposed by legislative and regulatory initiatives addressing environmental concerns and GHG emissions.
Topic velocity

Language versus prior quarter

M&ANew
CostNew
ChinaNew
MarginNew
RecordNew
iPhoneNew
Signal composition

What drove the EarnIQ score

Tone+20
Eps Beat+0
Guidance+12
New Signal+8
Miss Penalty+0
Qoq Improvement+8
Deflection Penalty+0