Guidance0
Current guidance was classified as maintained.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
D DOMINION ENERGY, INC
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-30
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 30, 2026 at 7:01 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 30, 2026 at 7:01 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Weak — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal -1.4% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q2Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q1
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+23.1%
Revenue — year over year
$5.0B vs $4.1B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+13.8%
Operating income — year over year
$1.4B vs $1.2B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
-6.6%
Net income — year over year
$621.0M vs $665.0M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 1 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The company expects to be in the top half of the 2026 operating earnings guidance range of $3.45 to $3.69 per shareeps · made 2026-10-30 | $3.45 to $3.69FY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001193125-26-4398 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $3.45–$3.69
StrengthensReported EPS above $3.69
InvalidatesReported EPS below $3.45
The company expects to be in the top half of the 2026 operating earnings guidance range of $3.45 to $3.69 per share and reaffirms existing long-term guidance.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
13
new risk disclosures added
70
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“reliability of the Companies’ electric grid and/or result in significant costs to enhance the grid. Virginia Power has an exclusive franchise to serve retail electric customers in Virginia. However, Virginia’s Retail Acc…”
New risk disclosure #2
“put directives in place to start the withdrawal of Virginia from RGGI. In December 2023, the withdrawal took effect. Cost recovery for these initiatives will require approval by the Virginia Commission which may be denie…”
New risk disclosure #3
“The construction of the CVOW Commercial Project is dependent on the Companies’ ability to maintain various local, state and federal permits, rights of way and other regulatory approvals and authorizations, including Virg…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +23.1% year over year
(5,019,000,000 − 4,076,000,000) ÷ 4,076,000,000 = +23.1% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Operating income: +13.8% year over year
(1,392,000,000 − 1,223,000,000) ÷ 1,223,000,000 = +13.8% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Net income: -6.6% year over year
(621,000,000 − 665,000,000) ÷ 665,000,000 = -6.6% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $3.45–$3.69
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $3.69 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $3.45