Guidance0
Current guidance was classified as maintained.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
EXE EXPAND ENERGY Corp
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-27
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Unchanged
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Strong — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -8.2% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+346.6%
Operating income — year over year
$661.0M vs $-268.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+309.6%
Net income — year over year
$522.0M vs $-249.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+34.8%
Revenue — year over year
$3.0B vs $2.2B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 5 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plans to pay quarterly base dividend of $0.575 per share on December 3, 2026.other · made 2026-10-27 | $0.575 per shareDecember 3, 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000895126-26-0000 |
| During the fourth quarter, the Company expects $80 million of marketing EBITDA.other · made 2026-10-27 | $80 millionQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000895126-26-0000 |
| Average daily production is expected to be approximately 7.45 - 7.55 Bcfe/d for 2026.other · made 2026-10-27 | 7.45 - 7.55 Bcfe/dFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000895126-26-0000 |
| Capital investment guidance updated to approximately $3 billion for the full year 2026.other · made 2026-10-27 | $3 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000895126-26-0000 |
| Expand Energy expects to run 11 - 12 rigs for the full year 2026.other · made 2026-10-27 | 11 - 12 rigsFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000895126-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Expand Energy expects to run 11-12 rigs with updated capital investment guidance of approximately $3 billion and average daily production of 7.45-7.55 Bcfe/d for full year 2026.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
64
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +346.6% year over year
(661,000,000 − -268,000,000) ÷ 268,000,000 = +346.6% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +309.6% year over year
(522,000,000 − -249,000,000) ÷ 249,000,000 = +309.6% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +34.8% year over year
(2,960,000,000 − 2,196,000,000) ÷ 2,196,000,000 = +34.8% YoY