Guidance0
Current guidance was classified as maintained.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-27
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 7:04 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 7:04 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Average — cash and accruals share the load
Earnings quality is middling — accruals at -2.7% of assets, close to the large-cap median. Neither a red flag nor a clean bill.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+53.7%
Operating income — year over year
$2.0B vs $1.3B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+22.7%
Revenue — year over year
$7.0B vs $5.7B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 5 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.4 billion, including $3.0 billion for major mining projects, for the year 2026other · made 2026-10-27 | $4.4 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000831259-26-0000 |
| Operating cash flows are expected to approximate $8.5 billion, net of $0.6 billion of working capital and other uses, for the year 2026other · made 2026-10-27 | $8.5 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000831259-26-0000 |
| Average unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.90 per pound of copper for the year 2026other · made 2026-10-27 | $1.90 per poundFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000831259-26-0000 |
| Consolidated sales are expected to include 875 million pounds of copper, 300 thousand ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum in fourth-quarter 2026other · made 2026-10-27 | 875M lbs copper, 300K oz gold, 22M lbs molybdenumQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000831259-26-0000 |
| Consolidated sales are expected to approximate 3.0 billion pounds of copper, 649 thousand ounces of gold and 93 million pounds of molybdenum for the year 2026other · made 2026-10-27 | 3.0B lbs copper, 649K oz gold, 93M lbs molybdenumFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000831259-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Consolidated sales for full year 2026 are expected to approximate 3.0 billion pounds of copper, 649 thousand ounces of gold, and 93 million pounds of molybdenum, with operating cash flows approximating $8.5 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
18
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +53.7% year over year
(2,003,000,000 − 1,303,000,000) ÷ 1,303,000,000 = +53.7% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +22.7% year over year
(7,029,000,000 − 5,728,000,000) ÷ 5,728,000,000 = +22.7% YoY