Guidance0
Current guidance was classified as maintained.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
FE FIRSTENERGY CORP
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-27
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 8:33 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 8:33 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Unchanged
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Weak — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal -1.0% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q2Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q1
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+13.9%
Operating income — year over year
$828.0M vs $727.0M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+12.7%
Revenue — year over year
$4.2B vs $3.7B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
-3.3%
Net income — year over year
$405.0M vs $419.0M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 4 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transmission investment plan is expected to drive at least a 25% increase when it rolls forward to 2027-2031other · made 2026-10-27 | at least 25% increase2027-2031 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001031296-26-0001 |
| Supported by a $36 billion, five-year capital investment plan (Energize365)other · made 2026-10-27 | $36 billionfive-year | — | Pending | 8-K 0001031296-26-0001 |
| Reaffirms Core Earnings compound annual growth rate near the top end of 6% to 8% through 2030eps · made 2026-10-27 | 6% to 8%through 2030 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001031296-26-0001 |
| Reaffirms 2026 Core Earnings guidance range of $2.62 to $2.82 per share and expects results at or slightly above the midpointeps · made 2026-10-27 | $2.62 to $2.82 per shareFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001031296-26-0001 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $2.62–$2.82
StrengthensReported EPS above $2.82
InvalidatesReported EPS below $2.62
Reaffirms 2026 Core Earnings guidance range of $2.62 to $2.82 per share and expects results at or slightly above the midpoint.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
1
new risk disclosures added
6
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“We operate in a business environment that involves significant risks, many of which are beyond the Registrants’ control. The Registrants regularly evaluate the most significant risks of their businesses and review those …”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Operating income: +13.9% year over year
(828,000,000 − 727,000,000) ÷ 727,000,000 = +13.9% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +12.7% year over year
(4,202,000,000 − 3,729,000,000) ÷ 3,729,000,000 = +12.7% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Net income: -3.3% year over year
(405,000,000 − 419,000,000) ÷ 419,000,000 = -3.3% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $2.62–$2.82
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $2.82 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $2.62