Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-21
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 21, 2026 at 8:24 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 21, 2026 at 8:24 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Average — cash and accruals share the load
Earnings quality is middling — accruals at -3.1% of assets, close to the large-cap median. Neither a red flag nor a clean bill.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+105.2%
Net income — year over year
$2.2B vs $1.1B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+23.4%
Gross profit — year over year
$9.9B vs $8.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+18.0%
Revenue — year over year
$17.2B vs $14.5B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 2 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| we now expect free cash flow to increase by more than $1 billion year-over-yearother · made 2026-10-21 | increase by >$1B YoYFull-Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000051143-26-0000 |
| For the full year, we continue to expect constant currency revenue growth in the range of four-to-five percentrevenue · made 2026-10-21 | 4% to 5% constant currency growthFull-Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000051143-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
IBM continues to expect full-year constant currency revenue growth of four-to-five percent and raised its free cash flow outlook to an increase of more than $1 billion year-over-year.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
2
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +105.2% year over year
(2,165,000,000 − 1,055,000,000) ÷ 1,055,000,000 = +105.2% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-30Gross profit: +23.4% year over year
(9,907,000,000 − 8,031,000,000) ÷ 8,031,000,000 = +23.4% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +18.0% year over year
(17,162,000,000 − 14,541,000,000) ÷ 14,541,000,000 = +18.0% YoY