Revenue within $15B–$16B
Strengthens: Revenue above $16BWeakens: Revenue below $15BEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
INTC INTEL CORP
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 26, 2026 · reported 2026-10-29
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 6 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
No quantified decisive changes have passed source verification yet.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 4 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasting fourth-quarter 2026 non-GAAP gross margin percentage of approximately 38.0%margin · made 2026-10-29 | 38.0%Q4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000050863-26-0001 |
| Forecasting fourth-quarter 2026 GAAP gross margin percentage of approximately 37.1%margin · made 2026-10-29 | 37.1%Q4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000050863-26-0001 |
| Forecasting fourth-quarter EPS attributable to Intel of $0.10 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25eps · made 2026-10-29 | $0.10 GAAP / $0.25 non-GAAPQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000050863-26-0001 |
| Forecasting fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billionrevenue · made 2026-10-29 | $15.0 billion to $16.0 billionQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000050863-26-0001 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $0.1–$0.25
StrengthensReported EPS above $0.25
InvalidatesReported EPS below $0.1
Intel forecasts Q4 2026 revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, GAAP EPS of $0.10, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
WN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $0.1–$0.25
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $0.25 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $0.1