Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
LLY ELI LILLY & Co
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-29
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 29, 2026 at 7:04 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 29, 2026 at 7:04 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Poor — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal -0.2% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+157.2%
Net income — year over year
$7.1B vs $2.8B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+80.5%
Revenue — year over year
$23.0B vs $12.7B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 2 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raised underlying non-GAAP EPS guidance for the full year resulting in an updated range of $35.00 to $36.00eps · made 2026-10-29 | $35.00 to $36.00FY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000059478-26-0001 |
| Increased the midpoint of our 2026 full-year revenue guidance by $5.5 billion to be in the range of $91.0 to $92.0 billionrevenue · made 2026-10-29 | $91.0 to $92.0 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000059478-26-0001 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $35–$36
StrengthensReported EPS above $36
InvalidatesReported EPS below $35
Revenue within $91B–$92B
Strengthens: Revenue above $92BWeakens: Revenue below $91BLilly raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance range to $91.0 to $92.0 billion and updated non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.00 to $36.00.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
2
new risk disclosures added
18
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“Item 1A. Risk Factors In addition to the other information contained in this Annual Report on Form 10-K, the following risk factors should be considered carefully in evaluating our company. It is possible that our busine…”
New risk disclosure #2
“The marketing, promotional, and pricing practices of pharmaceutical manufacturers, as well as the manner in which manufacturers interact with purchasers, prescribers, and patients, are subject to extensive scrutiny and r…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +157.2% year over year
(7,095,000,000 − 2,759,000,000) ÷ 2,759,000,000 = +157.2% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +80.5% year over year
(22,974,000,000 − 12,729,000,000) ÷ 12,729,000,000 = +80.5% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $35–$36
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $36 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $35