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LLY · Q3 2026

Eli Lilly and Company

Reported 2026-08-05
IN-LINE
51EarnIQ signal
↗

Confidence rising

Mild quarter-over-quarter shift

Strong volume-driven revenue growth and advanced pipeline milestones demonstrate sustained momentum and robust execution.

  • ✓Guidance was raised, with high specificity.
  • ✓Management tone registered as confident (90/100).
  • ✓EarnIQ detected 0 potential management deflections.
Headline–confidence gap

Mixed evidence

The headline and management signals do not point in one direction (confidence rising).

EPS: reported vs expected+38.1%$8.38 vs $6.07
Revenue: reported vs expected+9.8%$23.0B vs $20.9B
Guidance specificityHighRaised
Market expectations supplied by Finnhub · Reported vs consensus estimate

Lilly's momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance.

Premium intelligence

The evidence behind the signal

Full report
Management language

Why confidence moved

“Lilly's momentum continues, as we delivered 48% revenue growth and raised our full-year guidance”
“With our next-generation weight-loss medicine retatrutide and its complete clinical data package in hand, new manufacturing capacity coming online, and exciting new assets entering our pipeline through business development, Lilly's future, after 150 years, has never been brighter.”
“The clinical data package is now complete to support global registrations for obesity, obstructive sleep apnea, and knee osteoarthritis pain, with plans to submit a Biologics License Application to the U.S. FDA in the first quarter of 2027.”
Guidance specificity
90/100

High specificity

Increased 2026 full-year revenue guidance to $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion and adjusted non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.50 to $36.50 reflecting underlying growth offset by IPR&D charges.

Pressure point
!

Significant acquired IPR&D charges impacting

0 potential deflections detected in management communication.

Narrative break

What changed

Aggressive business development with multiple acquisitions including Orna, Ajax, Kelonia, Centessa, and new infectious disease portfolio additions.

Q&A evidence

Management responses

No material Q&A deflections were detected.

Key positives
  • Worldwide revenue increased 48% to $23.0 billion driven by 60% volume growth led by Mounjaro and Zepbound.
  • Complete clinical data package for next-generation weight-loss medicine retatrutide, supporting BLA submission in Q1 2027.
  • Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to a range of $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion.
Key risks
  • Significant acquired IPR&D charges impacting reported and non-GAAP EPS in the quarter and ongoing business development costs.
  • Realized price declines in U.S. and international markets, driven by lower realized prices for Zepbound and Mounjaro as well as China NRDL listing.
  • Execution and capacity risks associated with expanding manufacturing sites and managing massive global volume growth.
Topic velocity

Language versus prior quarter

M&ANew
CostNew
ChinaNew
MarginNew
RecordNew
iPhoneNew
Signal composition

What drove the EarnIQ score

Tone+20
Eps Beat+0
Guidance+15
New Signal+8
Miss Penalty+0
Qoq Improvement+8
Deflection Penalty+0