Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceSEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 22, 2026 at 7:04 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 22, 2026 at 7:04 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Average — cash and accruals share the load
Earnings quality is middling — accruals at -2.0% of assets, close to the large-cap median. Neither a red flag nor a clean bill.
CY2015Q1Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2016Q4
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+11.7%
Revenue — year over year
$20.1B vs $18.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 28, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+7.2%
Net income — year over year
$1.8B vs $1.7B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 28, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+5.3%
Gross profit — year over year
$2.4B vs $2.3B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 28, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 6 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We expect 2026 free cash flow to be approximately $7,800 million to $8,000 million.other · made 2026-10-22 | $7,800 - $8,000 millionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We expect 2026 capital expenditures to be approximately $2,100 million to $2,300 million.other · made 2026-10-22 | $2,100 - $2,300 millionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We expect 2026 cash from operations to be approximately $10,000 million to $10,200 million.other · made 2026-10-22 | $10,000 - $10,200 millionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We expect 2026 diluted earnings per share to be approximately $30.35 to $30.75.eps · made 2026-10-22 | $30.35 - $30.75FY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We expect 2026 business segment operating profit to be between approximately $8,575 million and $8,675 million.margin · made 2026-10-22 | $8,575 - $8,675 millionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We expect 2026 sales to be between approximately $80,000 million and $82,000 million.revenue · made 2026-10-22 | $80,000 - $82,000 millionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $30.35–$30.75
StrengthensReported EPS above $30.75
InvalidatesReported EPS below $30.35
Revenue within $80K–$82K
Strengthens: Revenue above $82KWeakens: Revenue below $80KManagement increased its 2026 full-year financial outlook for sales to roughly $80,000 - $82,000 million, diluted EPS to ~$30.35 - $30.75, and free cash flow to ~$7,800 - $8,000 million.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
1
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-28Revenue: +11.7% year over year
(20,063,000,000 − 17,963,000,000) ÷ 17,963,000,000 = +11.7% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-28Net income: +7.2% year over year
(1,836,000,000 − 1,712,000,000) ÷ 1,712,000,000 = +7.2% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-28Gross profit: +5.3% year over year
(2,446,000,000 − 2,323,000,000) ÷ 2,323,000,000 = +5.3% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $30.35–$30.75
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $30.75 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $30.35