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Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0

LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP

Fiscal Q4 FY2026 · reported 2026-07-29
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 at 4:35 AM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months. from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change

Unchanged

Legacy analysis

Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.

Reported facts

GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.

Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.

Earnings quality

From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

3 / 5
Average — cash and accruals share the load
Earnings quality is middling — accruals at 6.2% of assets, close to the large-cap median. Neither a red flag nor a clean bill.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2

Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.

1. Three decisive changes

Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.

+53.5%
Operating income — year over year

$2.0B vs $1.3B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 29, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+53.3%
Net income — year over year

$1.8B vs $1.2B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 29, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+40.4%
Gross profit — year over year

$2.9B vs $2.1B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 29, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

2. Was it already expected?

Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.

ItemActualExpectedGapClass
Consensus comparison coming soon.

3. Management consistency

Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.

PromiseTargetOutcomeStatusEvidence
No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record.

4. What matters next

One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.

No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Guidance in management's words

Lam provides September 2026 quarter guidance of $8.10 billion in revenue plus or minus $400 million, gross margin of 52.0% plus or minus 1%, operating margin of 39.5% plus or minus 1%, and EPS of $2.15 plus or minus $0.15.

5. Risks that changed

New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.

No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
27
old ones removed

FY2026 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.

6. Evidence drawer

Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.

DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-29
Operating income: +53.5% year over year
(2,047,016,000 − 1,333,884,000) ÷ 1,333,884,000 = +53.5% YoY
DC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-29
Net income: +53.3% year over year
(1,825,460,000 − 1,191,018,000) ÷ 1,191,018,000 = +53.3% YoY
DC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-03-29
Gross profit: +40.4% year over year
(2,910,527,000 − 2,072,981,000) ÷ 2,072,981,000 = +40.4% YoY