Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
META Meta Platforms, Inc.
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-21
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 21, 2026 at 8:13 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 21, 2026 at 8:13 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Weak — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal 1.9% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+43.7%
Revenue — year over year
$60.8B vs $42.3B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+6.9%
Operating income — year over year
$18.8B vs $17.6B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
-4.8%
Net income — year over year
$15.8B vs $16.6B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 7 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| expect losses to narrow next year to around $15 billion as we reallocate investment toward other priority areasother · made 2026-10-21 | around $15 billionNext year / 2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| we expect our fourth quarter 2026 tax rate to be between 15-17%.margin · made 2026-10-21 | 15-17%Q4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $135-145 billionother · made 2026-10-21 | $135-145 billionFull Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We now expect Reality Labs losses to decline compared to 2025 to a range of $18-19 billion.other · made 2026-10-21 | $18-19 billion2025/2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| Excluding the third quarter legal charge, we continue to expect 2026 operating income to be above 2025 operating income.other · made 2026-10-21 | above 2025 operating incomeFull Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We now expect full year 2026 total expenses to be in the range of $175-179 billion.other · made 2026-10-21 | $175-179 billionFull Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
| We expect fourth quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $73-76 billion.revenue · made 2026-10-21 | $73-76 billionQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0667 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
Revenue within $73K–$76K
StrengthensRevenue above $76K
InvalidatesRevenue below $73K
Management guided Q4 2026 total revenue to $73-76 billion, raised full-year 2026 total expenses to $175-179 billion due to the legal charge, and narrowed 2026 capital expenditures to $135-145 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
28
new risk disclosures added
29
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is about unchanged.
New risk disclosure #1
“• other events or factors, including those resulting from war, incidents of terrorism, pandemics, and other disruptive external events, or responses to these events. In addition, the stock markets have experienced extrem…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• refunds or other concessions provided to advertisers; 24 Table of Contents…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• limitations on the ability of holders of our Class A Common Stock to influence corporate matters due to the dual class structure of our common stock and the control of a majority of the voting power of our outstanding …”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +43.7% year over year
(60,801,000,000 − 42,314,000,000) ÷ 42,314,000,000 = +43.7% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +6.9% year over year
(18,775,000,000 − 17,555,000,000) ÷ 17,555,000,000 = +6.9% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: -4.8% year over year
(15,848,000,000 − 16,644,000,000) ÷ 16,644,000,000 = -4.8% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026Revenue within $73K–$76K
Strengthens: Revenue above $76K · Invalidates: Revenue below $73K