Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0

MMM 3M CO

Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-20

SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 20, 2026 at 7:05 PM UTC

ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months. from SEC filings · 2026-10-09

Thesis change

Strengthened

Legacy analysis

Guidance+1

Current guidance was classified as raised.

Low confidence

Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.

Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence

Reported facts

GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.

Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.

Earnings quality

From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

Good — cash is doing the heavy lifting

Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -5.1% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.

CY2015Q2Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2017Q1

Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.

1. Three decisive changes

Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.

-21.0%

Operating income — year over year

$984.0M vs $1.2B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

-16.4%

Net income — year over year

$933.0M vs $1.1B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+9.2%

Revenue — year over year

$6.5B vs $6.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

2. Was it already expected?

Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.

Item	Actual	Expected	Gap	Class
Consensus comparison coming soon.

3. Management consistency

Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.

Promise	Target	Outcome	Status	Evidence
No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record.

4. What matters next

One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.

The deciding condition

EPS for the guided period lands within $9.1–$9.15

StrengthensReported EPS above $9.15

InvalidatesReported EPS below $9.1

Guidance in management's words

3M raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.10 to $9.15 and adjusted total sales growth to greater than 4.5 percent.

5. Risks that changed

New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.

No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.

From 10-K filings · EDGAR

new risk disclosures added

old ones removed

FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.

6. Evidence drawer

Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.

DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)

Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30

Operating income: -21.0% year over year

(984,000,000 − 1,246,000,000) ÷ 1,246,000,000 = -21.0% YoY

DC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)

Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30

Net income: -16.4% year over year

(933,000,000 − 1,116,000,000) ÷ 1,116,000,000 = -16.4% YoY

DC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)

Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30

Revenue: +9.2% year over year

(6,500,000,000 − 5,954,000,000) ÷ 5,954,000,000 = +9.2% YoY

WN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)

Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026

EPS for the guided period lands within $9.1–$9.15

Strengthens: Reported EPS above $9.15 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $9.1