-214.6%
Net income — year over year
$-272.8M vs $238.1M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
MOS MOSAIC CO
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-03
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 3, 2026 at 9:44 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 3, 2026 at 9:44 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 6 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Weak — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal -1.7% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
-110.5%
Operating income — year over year
$-35.5M vs $338.5M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
-56.0%
Gross profit — year over year
$214.7M vs $488.4M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 2 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For 2027, Mosaic is targeting capital expenditures below $1 billion.other · made 2026-11-03 | below $1 billionFY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001285785-26-0001 |
| Capital expenditures in 2026 are now expected to be $1.2 billion.other · made 2026-11-03 | $1.2 billionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001285785-26-0001 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Management provided fourth quarter sales volume and pricing ranges for both Phosphate and Potash, along with full-year 2026 guidance for capital expenditures, SG&A, and production volumes.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
16
new risk disclosures added
16
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“impoundments at any of our operations could cause severe property and environmental damage and loss of life, could result in the shut down or idling of our facilities and could have a material adverse effect on our resul…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• We handle significant quantities of ammonia at several of our facilities. We produce ammonia at our Faustina, Louisiana phosphate concentrates plant, use ammonia in significant quantities at all of our Florida and Loui…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• nationalization of properties by foreign governments; 22 Table of Content…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: -214.6% year over year
(-272,800,000 − 238,100,000) ÷ 238,100,000 = -214.6% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: -110.5% year over year
(-35,500,000 − 338,500,000) ÷ 338,500,000 = -110.5% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-30Gross profit: -56.0% year over year
(214,700,000 − 488,400,000) ÷ 488,400,000 = -56.0% YoY