+31.8%
Net income — year over year
$31.8B vs $24.1B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP
Fiscal Q1 FY2027 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-28
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 28, 2026 at 8:16 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 28, 2026 at 8:16 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 6 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Good — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -4.0% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+21.3%
Operating income — year over year
$38.4B vs $31.7B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+19.0%
Revenue — year over year
$82.9B vs $69.6B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record. | ||||
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Microsoft stated that it will provide forward-looking guidance in connection with this quarterly earnings announcement on its earnings conference call and webcast.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
44
new risk disclosures added
37
old ones removed
FY2026 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is about unchanged.
New risk disclosure #1
“In addition to infrastructure, other products such as XBOX consoles, Surface devices, and other hardware are similarly subject to supply chain challenges and disruptions, resulting in shortages which could adversely affe…”
New risk disclosure #2
“when software updates are not deployed, and maintain the digital security infrastructure that protects the integrity of our network, products, and services. Further, we must provide security tools such as firewalls, anti…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• Some companies compete with us by modifying and then distributing open-source software at little or no cost to end users, developing, making available, or using AI models that are open, and earning revenue on advertisi…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Net income: +31.8% year over year
(31,778,000,000 − 24,108,000,000) ÷ 24,108,000,000 = +31.8% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Operating income: +21.3% year over year
(38,398,000,000 − 31,653,000,000) ÷ 31,653,000,000 = +21.3% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +19.0% year over year
(82,886,000,000 − 69,632,000,000) ÷ 69,632,000,000 = +19.0% YoY