Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceSEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 8:33 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 8:33 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Poor — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal -0.7% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+51.9%
Net income — year over year
$966.0M vs $636.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+49.8%
Revenue — year over year
$12.0B vs $8.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+30.6%
Operating income — year over year
$1.6B vs $1.2B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 4 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| declared a quarterly dividend of $1.07 per share, or $4.28 per share annualizedother · made 2026-10-27 | $4.28 per share annualizedFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001039684-26-0000 |
| Total 2026 capital expenditure guidance is expected to be approximately $3.5 billion.other · made 2026-10-27 | $3.5 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001039684-26-0000 |
| Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to a range of $8.5 billion to $8.6 billion.other · made 2026-10-27 | $8.5 billion to $8.6 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001039684-26-0000 |
| ONEOK increased 2026 net income guidance to a range of $4.09 billion to $4.27 billion.other · made 2026-10-27 | $4.09 billion to $4.27 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001039684-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
Revenue within $8.5B–$8.6B
StrengthensRevenue above $8.6B
InvalidatesRevenue below $8.5B
ONEOK raised 2026 net income guidance to a range of $4.09 billion to $4.27 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.5 billion to $8.6 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
33
new risk disclosures added
20
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“• relationships with affiliate companies involved in all aspects of our business. Compliance with these requirements can be costly and burdensome. Future changes to laws, regulations and policies in these areas may impai…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• customer or key employee losses at an acquired business. If we consummate any future mergers or acquisitions, our capitalization and results of operations may change significantly, and investors will not have the oppor…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• production decisions by other countries, and the failure of countries to abide by agreements relating to production decisions;…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +51.9% year over year
(966,000,000 − 636,000,000) ÷ 636,000,000 = +51.9% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +49.8% year over year
(12,049,000,000 − 8,043,000,000) ÷ 8,043,000,000 = +49.8% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +30.6% year over year
(1,593,000,000 − 1,220,000,000) ÷ 1,220,000,000 = +30.6% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026Revenue within $8.5B–$8.6B
Strengthens: Revenue above $8.6B · Invalidates: Revenue below $8.5B