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Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0

OMC OMNICOM GROUP INC.

Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-22
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 22, 2026 at 8:19 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months. from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change

Weakened

Legacy analysis

Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.

Reported facts

GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.

Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.

Earnings quality

From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

3 / 5
Average — cash and accruals share the load
Earnings quality is middling — accruals at -1.1% of assets, close to the large-cap median. Neither a red flag nor a clean bill.
CY2020Q1Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2021Q4

Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.

1. Three decisive changes

Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.

+60.8%
Revenue — year over year

$6.2B vs $3.9B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+7.7%
Operating income — year over year

$646.2M vs $600.1M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+5.0%
Net income — year over year

$405.2M vs $385.9M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

2. Was it already expected?

Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.

ItemActualExpectedGapClass
Consensus comparison coming soon.

3. Management consistency

Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 1 being tracked.

PromiseTargetOutcomeStatusEvidence
We are on track to deliver $900 million in cost-reduction synergies in 2026other · made 2026-10-22$900 million2026—Pending8-K 0000029989-26-0000

4. What matters next

One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.

No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Guidance in management's words

No forward-looking guidance ranges were provided in the earnings release.

5. Risks that changed

New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.

No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
13
new risk disclosures added
22
old ones removed

FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.

New risk disclosure #1

“and future compliance costs, which could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. We also cannot guarantee that any such costs or losses will be covered by our existing ins…”

New risk disclosure #2

“• consolidating our operating, administrative and information technology infrastructure and financial systems. In addition, at times, the attention of certain members of our management and our resources may be focused on…”

New risk disclosure #3

“transact business in more than 50 different currencies. Substantially all of our foreign operations transact business in their local currency and, accordingly, their financial statements are translated into U.S. Dollars.…”

6. Evidence drawer

Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.

DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31
Revenue: +60.8% year over year
(6,242,900,000 − 3,882,600,000) ÷ 3,882,600,000 = +60.8% YoY
DC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-31
Operating income: +7.7% year over year
(646,200,000 − 600,100,000) ÷ 600,100,000 = +7.7% YoY
DC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-31
Net income: +5.0% year over year
(405,200,000 − 385,900,000) ÷ 385,900,000 = +5.0% YoY