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Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0

ORCL ORACLE CORP

Fiscal Q4 FY2026 · reported 2026-06-10
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Aug 23, 2026 at 4:15 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months. from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change

Strengthened

Legacy analysis
Guidance+1

Current guidance was classified as raised.

Low confidence

Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.

Reported facts

GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.

Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.

Earnings quality

From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

4 / 5
Good — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -6.3% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q4Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q3

Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.

1. Three decisive changes

Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.

+29.5%
Operating income — year over year

$5.5B vs $4.2B a year ago · quarter ended Feb 28, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+22.3%
Revenue — year over year

$17.2B vs $14.1B a year ago · quarter ended Feb 28, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+18.1%
Net income — year over year

$3.7B vs $3.2B a year ago · quarter ended Feb 28, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

2. Was it already expected?

Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.

ItemActualExpectedGapClass
Consensus comparison coming soon.

3. Management consistency

Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.

PromiseTargetOutcomeStatusEvidence
No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record.

4. What matters next

One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.

No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Guidance in management's words

For Q1 FY 2027, total revenues are expected to grow 27%-29% and non-GAAP EPS between $1.72 and $1.76 in USD, while raising full year FY 2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $8.05.

5. Risks that changed

New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.

No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
84
new risk disclosures added
41
old ones removed

FY2026 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.

New risk disclosure #1

“• We have medical devices registered with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and other foreign medical device regulators, and certain other products and solutions may now or in the future be regulated under the Federa…”

New risk disclosure #2

“• Our periodic workforce restructurings and reorganizations can be disruptive.…”

New risk disclosure #3

“• Economic, political and market conditions can adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition, including our revenue growth and profitability, which in turn could adversely affect our stock…”

6. Evidence drawer

Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.

DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-02-28
Operating income: +29.5% year over year
(5,464,000,000 − 4,220,000,000) ÷ 4,220,000,000 = +29.5% YoY
DC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-02-28
Revenue: +22.3% year over year
(17,190,000,000 − 14,059,000,000) ÷ 14,059,000,000 = +22.3% YoY
DC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-02-28
Net income: +18.1% year over year
(3,721,000,000 − 3,151,000,000) ÷ 3,151,000,000 = +18.1% YoY