Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
PH Parker-Hannifin Corp
Fiscal Q1 FY2027 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-05
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 5, 2026 at 8:49 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 5, 2026 at 8:49 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Poor — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal 2.6% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+23.9%
Operating income — year over year
$1.2B vs $992.0M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+15.7%
Revenue — year over year
$5.5B vs $4.7B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 6 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow of $3,500 to $4,000 million for fiscal year 2027other · made 2026-11-05 | $3,500 to $4,000 millionFY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000076334-26-0001 |
| Cash flow from operations of $4,125 to $4,625 million for fiscal year 2027other · made 2026-11-05 | $4,125 to $4,625 millionFY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000076334-26-0001 |
| EPS of $29.65 to $30.45, or $36.45 to $37.25 on an adjusted basis for fiscal year 2027eps · made 2026-11-05 | $29.65 to $30.45 ($36.45 to $37.25 adjusted)FY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000076334-26-0001 |
| Segment operating margin of 23.6% to 24.0% or 27.7% to 28.1% adjusted for fiscal year 2027margin · made 2026-11-05 | 23.6% to 24.0% (27.7% to 28.1% adjusted)FY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000076334-26-0001 |
| Organic sales growth of 7.5% to 10.5% for fiscal year 2027revenue · made 2026-11-05 | 7.5% to 10.5%FY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000076334-26-0001 |
| Reported sales growth of 16.0% to 19.0% for fiscal year 2027revenue · made 2026-11-05 | 16.0% to 19.0%FY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000076334-26-0001 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $36.45–$37.25
StrengthensReported EPS above $37.25
InvalidatesReported EPS below $36.45
Management raised full year fiscal 2027 guidance for organic sales growth, adjusted segment operating margin, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
7
old ones removed
FY2026 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Operating income: +23.9% year over year
(1,229,000,000 − 992,000,000) ÷ 992,000,000 = +23.9% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +15.7% year over year
(5,486,000,000 − 4,743,000,000) ÷ 4,743,000,000 = +15.7% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q1 FY2027EPS for the guided period lands within $36.45–$37.25
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $37.25 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $36.45