Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc.
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-02
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 2, 2026 at 9:16 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 2, 2026 at 9:16 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Poor — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal 27.7% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps. Note: accruals this elevated are common at hypergrowth companies as receivables and inventory scale with revenue — it reflects growth, not necessarily earnings management.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+418.0%
Operating income — year over year
$912.0M vs $176.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+396.1%
Net income — year over year
$1.1B vs $214.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+130.5%
Gross profit — year over year
$1.6B vs $710.9M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 6 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We are raising our adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $4.8 and $5.0 billion for full year 2026other · made 2026-11-02 | $4.8 - $5.0 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001321655-26-0000 |
| We are raising our adjusted income from operations guidance to between $5.245 and $5.249 billion for full year 2026margin · made 2026-11-02 | $5.245 - $5.249 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001321655-26-0000 |
| We are raising our U.S. commercial revenue guidance to in excess of $3.559 billion, representing a growth rate of at least 143%revenue · made 2026-11-02 | >$3.559 billion (>=143% growth)FY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001321655-26-0000 |
| We are raising full year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.530 and $8.534 billionrevenue · made 2026-11-02 | $8.530 - $8.534 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001321655-26-0000 |
| We expect Q4 2026 adjusted income from operations of between $1.640 and $1.644 billionmargin · made 2026-11-02 | $1.640 - $1.644 billionQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001321655-26-0000 |
| We expect Q4 2026 revenue of between $2.649 and $2.653 billionrevenue · made 2026-11-02 | $2.649 - $2.653 billionQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001321655-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
Revenue within $8.53B–$8.534B
StrengthensRevenue above $8.534B
InvalidatesRevenue below $8.53B
Palantir raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.530-$8.534 billion and provided Q4 revenue guidance of $2.649-$2.653 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
44
new risk disclosures added
45
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is about unchanged.
New risk disclosure #1
“• prompt us to cease doing business with certain customers. Any of these factors could adversely impact our business, financial condition, and results of operations. If we are unable to hire, retain, train, and motivate …”
New risk disclosure #2
“• new and different sources of competition not present in the United States; 41 Table of Contents…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• budgetary constraints, including automatic reductions as a result of “sequestration” or similar measures and constraints imposed by any lapses in appropriations for the federal government or certain of its departments …”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +418.0% year over year
(912,004,000 − 176,048,000) ÷ 176,048,000 = +418.0% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +396.1% year over year
(1,061,890,000 − 214,031,000) ÷ 214,031,000 = +396.1% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-30Gross profit: +130.5% year over year
(1,638,594,000 − 710,885,000) ÷ 710,885,000 = +130.5% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026Revenue within $8.53B–$8.534B
Strengthens: Revenue above $8.534B · Invalidates: Revenue below $8.53B