Guidance-1
Current guidance was classified as lowered.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-02
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 2, 2026 at 9:17 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 2, 2026 at 9:17 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
-12.0%
Net income — year over year
$198.8M vs $225.8M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+5.6%
Gross profit — year over year
$539.3M vs $510.6M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+5.1%
Operating income — year over year
$351.9M vs $334.8M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 6 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declared quarterly cash dividend of $1.25 per share payable on December 10, 2026.other · made 2026-11-02 | $1.25 per shareDecember 10, 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001193125-26-4436 |
| Full Year 2026 AFFO per share is expected to be between $12.15 and $12.37.eps · made 2026-11-02 | $12.15 to $12.37Full Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001193125-26-4436 |
| Full Year 2026 AFFO is expected to be between $1,284.0 million and $1,308.0 million.other · made 2026-11-02 | $1,284.0 million to $1,308.0 millionFull Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001193125-26-4436 |
| Full Year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1,918.0 million and $1,928.0 million.other · made 2026-11-02 | $1,918.0 million to $1,928.0 millionFull Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001193125-26-4436 |
| Full Year 2026 Tower Cash Flow is expected to be between $2,083.0 million and $2,098.0 million.other · made 2026-11-02 | $2,083.0 million to $2,098.0 millionFull Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001193125-26-4436 |
| Full Year 2026 site leasing revenue is expected to be between $2,643.0 million and $2,658.0 million.revenue · made 2026-11-02 | $2,643.0 million to $2,658.0 millionFull Year 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001193125-26-4436 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
Revenue within $2.833K–$2.858K
StrengthensRevenue above $2.858K
InvalidatesRevenue below $2.833K
The Company updated its full year 2026 Outlook, adjusting ranges for site leasing revenue, site development revenue, total revenues, and cash flows.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
25
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: -12.0% year over year
(198,777,000 − 225,794,000) ÷ 225,794,000 = -12.0% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-06-30Gross profit: +5.6% year over year
(539,272,000 − 510,582,000) ÷ 510,582,000 = +5.6% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +5.1% year over year
(351,861,000 − 334,781,000) ÷ 334,781,000 = +5.1% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026Revenue within $2.833K–$2.858K
Strengthens: Revenue above $2.858K · Invalidates: Revenue below $2.833K