Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
SPGI S&P Global Inc.
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-27
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 7:03 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 7:03 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+43.7%
Net income — year over year
$1.4B vs $971.0M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+39.6%
Operating income — year over year
$2.0B vs $1.4B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+16.7%
Revenue — year over year
$4.2B vs $3.6B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 8 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS outlook of $16.25 to $16.50eps · made 2026-10-27 | $16.25 to $16.50FY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
| Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS outlook of $17.70 to $17.95eps · made 2026-10-27 | $17.70 to $17.95FY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
| Operating Profit Margin expansion of 310 to 335 bps (GAAP) and 75 to 100 bps (Adjusted)margin · made 2026-10-27 | 75 to 335 bpsFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
| Deal-related Amortization outlook of ~$800 millionother · made 2026-10-27 | ~$800 millionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
| Corporate Unallocated Expense GAAP guidance of $185 to $195 million and Adjusted guidance of $160 to $170 millionother · made 2026-10-27 | $160 to $195 millionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
| 2026 guidance calls for organic constant currency growth of 7.5% to 8.5%revenue · made 2026-10-27 | 7.5% to 8.5%FY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
| 2026 guidance calls for revenue growth of 7.4% to 8.4%revenue · made 2026-10-27 | 7.4% to 8.4%FY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
| The Company continues to expect to repurchase more than $7 billion in shares in total in 2026.other · made 2026-10-27 | >$7 billionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000064040-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $17.7–$17.95
StrengthensReported EPS above $17.95
InvalidatesReported EPS below $17.7
Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 7.4% to 8.4% and adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $17.70 to $17.95.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
109
new risk disclosures added
91
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“• We devote significant resources to maintain and regularly update our systems and processes that are designed to protect the security of our information systems, software, networks and other technology assets and the co…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• Some of our agreements with data suppliers allow them to cancel on short notice. Termination of significant data agreements or exclusion from, or restricted use of, or litigation in connection with, significant third-p…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• Compliance with international and U.S. laws and regulations that apply to our international operations increases the cost of doing business in foreign jurisdictions. Violations of such laws and regulations may result i…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Net income: +43.7% year over year
(1,395,000,000 − 971,000,000) ÷ 971,000,000 = +43.7% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Operating income: +39.6% year over year
(2,002,000,000 − 1,434,000,000) ÷ 1,434,000,000 = +39.6% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +16.7% year over year
(4,171,000,000 − 3,575,000,000) ÷ 3,575,000,000 = +16.7% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $17.7–$17.95
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $17.95 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $17.7