Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
SRE SEMPRA
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-05
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 5, 2026 at 9:45 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 5, 2026 at 9:45 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
GAAP diluted EPS$1.34
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Poor — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal 17.9% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q2Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q1
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+59.8%
Net income — year over year
$1.0B vs $649.0M a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+33.4%
Revenue — year over year
$3.4B vs $2.6B a year ago · quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record. | ||||
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $4.8–$5.3
StrengthensReported EPS above $5.3
InvalidatesReported EPS below $4.8
Sempra updated its full-year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to $7.41 to $8.41, guided to the high end of its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30, and affirmed its 2027 EPS guidance range of $5.10 to $5.70.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
38
new risk disclosures added
34
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is about unchanged.
New risk disclosure #1
“Operational and Structural Risks Sempra’s ability to pay dividends and meet its obligations largely depends on the performance of its subsidiaries and entities accounted for as equity method investments. We are a holding…”
New risk disclosure #2
“| 56 Tab le of Cont ents A CPUC cost of capital proceeding every three years determines a utility’s authorized capital structure and return on rate base. The CPUC applies the CCM, which we describe in “Part I – Item 1. B…”
New risk disclosure #3
“Operational Risks Project development activities may not be successful, projects under construction may not be completed on schedule or within budget, and completed projects may not operate at expected levels or generate…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-03-31Net income: +59.8% year over year
(1,037,000,000 − 649,000,000) ÷ 649,000,000 = +59.8% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-03-31Revenue: +33.4% year over year
(3,428,000,000 − 2,569,000,000) ÷ 2,569,000,000 = +33.4% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $4.8–$5.3
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $5.3 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $4.8