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Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0

STZ CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC.

Fiscal Q3 FY2027 · reported 2026-10-06
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 12, 2026 at 7:13 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months. from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change

Weakened

Legacy analysis

Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.

Reported facts

GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.

Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.

Earnings quality

From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.

3 / 5
Average — cash and accruals share the load
Earnings quality is middling — accruals at -3.6% of assets, close to the large-cap median. Neither a red flag nor a clean bill.
CY2024Q4Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q3

Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.

1. Three decisive changes

Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.

+21.4%
Net income — year over year

$565.8M vs $466.0M a year ago · quarter ended Aug 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+12.8%
Operating income — year over year

$805.0M vs $713.8M a year ago · quarter ended Aug 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

+6.3%
Gross profit — year over year

$1.4B vs $1.3B a year ago · quarter ended Aug 31, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.

2. Was it already expected?

Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.

ItemActualExpectedGapClass
Consensus comparison coming soon.

3. Management consistency

Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.

PromiseTargetOutcomeStatusEvidence
No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record.

4. What matters next

One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.

The deciding condition

EPS for the guided period lands within $11.2–$11.9

StrengthensReported EPS above $11.9
InvalidatesReported EPS below $11.2
Guidance in management's words

Management updated fiscal 2027 reported EPS outlook to $11.85 - $12.55 while reaffirming comparable EPS, operating cash flow, and free cash flow targets.

5. Risks that changed

New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.

No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
38
old ones removed

FY2026 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.

6. Evidence drawer

Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.

DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-08-31
Net income: +21.4% year over year
(565,800,000 − 466,000,000) ÷ 466,000,000 = +21.4% YoY
DC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-08-31
Operating income: +12.8% year over year
(805,000,000 − 713,800,000) ÷ 713,800,000 = +12.8% YoY
DC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Gross profit · quarter ended 2026-08-31
Gross profit: +6.3% year over year
(1,393,000,000 − 1,310,000,000) ÷ 1,310,000,000 = +6.3% YoY
WN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2027
EPS for the guided period lands within $11.2–$11.9
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $11.9 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $11.2