+86.5%
Operating income — year over year
$101.6M vs $54.5M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
Earnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
TTD Trade Desk, Inc.
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-09
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 9, 2026 at 9:12 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 9, 2026 at 9:12 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · ELEVATED
;
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Detailed dimension scores were not computed for pre-v1 analyses. Full six-dimension scoring resumes with filings processed by the current pipeline.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 6 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Weak — accruals are doing the heavy lifting
Reported profits have been driven more by accounting accruals than cash. Latest quarter: accruals equal -7.4% of assets — in the weakest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+27.1%
Net income — year over year
$64.4M vs $50.7M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+16.1%
Revenue — year over year
$715.1M vs $616.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record. | ||||
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
Revenue at least $755M
StrengthensRevenue comfortably above $755M
InvalidatesRevenue below $755M
Fourth quarter 2026 outlook calls for revenue of at least $755 million and Adjusted EBITDA of at least $280 million.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
26
new risk disclosures added
25
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“• regulatory developments in the United States, foreign countries, or both; 34 Table o f Contents…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• establish advance notice requirements for nominations for election to our board of directors or for proposing matters that can be acted upon by stockholders at annual stockholder meetings. In addition, we are subject t…”
New risk disclosure #3
“In 2025, the global digital advertising ecosystem saw a large increase in supply (ad impression opportunities). Supply growth has meaningfully outpaced demand growth. Overall, we believe this is a positive development fo…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +86.5% year over year
(101,577,000 − 54,452,000) ÷ 54,452,000 = +86.5% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +27.1% year over year
(64,394,000 − 50,678,000) ÷ 50,678,000 = +27.1% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +16.1% year over year
(715,057,000 − 616,021,000) ÷ 616,021,000 = +16.1% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026Revenue at least $755M
Strengthens: Revenue comfortably above $755M · Invalidates: Revenue below $755M