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TTD · Q3 2026

Trade Desk, Inc.

Reported 2026-08-06
MISS
24EarnIQ signal
↘

Confidence falling

Moderate quarter-over-quarter shift

Slower revenue growth and earnings compression signal execution challenges despite strong long-term platform positioning.

  • ✓Guidance was none, with moderate specificity.
  • ✓Management tone registered as cautious (45/100).
  • ✓EarnIQ detected 0 potential management deflections.
Headline–confidence gap

Weakness confirmed

The language and outlook reinforce the reported miss.

EPS: reported vs expected-15.1%$0.34 vs $0.40
Revenue: reported vs expected-5.8%$715.1M vs $758.9M
Guidance specificityModerateChange not comparable
Market expectations supplied by Finnhub · Reported vs consensus estimate

This quarter did not meet the standard we set for ourselves, but it has reinforced our belief that we are focused on the right opportunities for the future.

Premium intelligence

The evidence behind the signal

Full report
Management language

Why confidence moved

“This quarter did not meet the standard we set for ourselves, but it has reinforced our belief that we are focused on the right opportunities for the future”
“Marketers are navigating a complex environment, but complexity increases the value of decisioning, measurement and AI.”
“While there is work ahead, I am confident our actions will help marketers drive better business outcomes”
Guidance specificity
60/100

Moderate specificity

Third quarter 2026 revenue is expected to be at least $650 million with Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $160 million.

Pressure point
!

Revenue growth decelerated significantly to

0 potential deflections detected in management communication.

Narrative break

What changed

Deepened ecosystem integrations focusing on retail data, commerce media, and agentic AI through Databricks and Adobe.

Q&A evidence

Management responses

No material Q&A deflections were detected.

Key positives
  • Customer retention remained exceptionally strong at over 95%.
  • Major new ecosystem partnerships announced with Netflix, Samsung Ads, Databricks, and Adobe.
  • Aggressive share repurchases with approximately $78 million used in Q2.
Key risks
  • Revenue growth decelerated significantly to 3% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
  • GAAP net income dropped to $64 million from $90 million in the prior year period.
  • Broader macroeconomic and environmental complexity impacting marketer spending behaviors.
Topic velocity

Language versus prior quarter

M&ANew
CostNew
ChinaNew
MarginNew
RecordNew
iPhoneNew
Signal composition

What drove the EarnIQ score

Tone+6
Eps Beat+0
Guidance+8
New Signal+8
Miss Penalty-6
Qoq Improvement+8
Deflection Penalty+0