Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE INC
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-10-27
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 7:03 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Oct 27, 2026 at 7:03 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Good — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -6.0% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
-60.8%
Net income — year over year
$604.0M vs $1.5B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
-44.2%
Operating income — year over year
$930.0M vs $1.7B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+6.0%
Revenue — year over year
$22.8B vs $21.5B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 8 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend payments of around $5.4 billion for full year 2026other · made 2026-10-27 | $5.4 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
| Capital expenditures of approximately $3.0 billion for full year 2026other · made 2026-10-27 | $3.0 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
| full-year 2026 non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow of approximately $6.1Bother · made 2026-10-27 | $6.1 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
| full-year 2026 non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $7.28eps · made 2026-10-27 | $7.28FY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
| full-year 2026 non-GAAP adjusted operating profit of approximately $8.75 billionmargin · made 2026-10-27 | $8.75 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
| full-year 2026 consolidated revenue of approximately $92.6 billionrevenue · made 2026-10-27 | $92.6 billionFY 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
| fourth-quarter 2026 non-GAAP adjusted operating profit of approximately $3.3 billionmargin · made 2026-10-27 | $3.3 billionQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
| fourth-quarter 2026 revenue to be approximately $25.7 billionrevenue · made 2026-10-27 | $25.7 billionQ4 2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001628280-26-0673 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
EPS for the guided period lands within $7.28–$7.28
StrengthensReported EPS above $7.28
InvalidatesReported EPS below $7.28
Revenue within $92.6B–$92.6B
Strengthens: Revenue above $92.6BWeakens: Revenue below $92.6BUPS raised full-year 2026 consolidated revenue to ~$92.6B, non-GAAP adjusted operating profit to ~$8.75B, and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS to ~$7.28.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
0
new risk disclosures added
2
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly more negative.
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: -60.8% year over year
(604,000,000 − 1,539,000,000) ÷ 1,539,000,000 = -60.8% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: -44.2% year over year
(930,000,000 − 1,666,000,000) ÷ 1,666,000,000 = -44.2% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +6.0% year over year
(22,834,000,000 − 21,546,000,000) ÷ 21,546,000,000 = +6.0% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026EPS for the guided period lands within $7.28–$7.28
Strengthens: Reported EPS above $7.28 · Invalidates: Reported EPS below $7.28