Guidance+1
Current guidance was classified as raised.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
VST Vistra Corp.
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-06
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 6, 2026 at 8:06 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 6, 2026 at 8:06 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Strengthened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Strong — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -5.0% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+560.8%
Operating income — year over year
$553.0M vs $-120.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+213.8%
Net income — year over year
$305.0M vs $-268.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+2.1%
Revenue — year over year
$4.0B vs $3.9B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 6 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected share repurchase authorization balance of ~$2.5 billion to be completed no later than year-end 2028other · made 2026-11-06 | ~$2.5 billionyear-end 2028 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001692819-26-0000 |
| Board authorized an additional $1.5 billion of share repurchases, which is expected to be utilized by year-end 2028other · made 2026-11-06 | $1.5 billionyear-end 2028 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001692819-26-0000 |
| Initiated 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance range of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billionother · made 2026-11-06 | $4.3 billion to $5.1 billionFY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001692819-26-0000 |
| Initiated 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billionother · made 2026-11-06 | $7.7 billion to $8.5 billionFY2027 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001692819-26-0000 |
| Narrowed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG range to $4.3 billion to $4.7 billionother · made 2026-11-06 | $4.3 billion to $4.7 billionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001692819-26-0000 |
| Raised the midpoint and narrowed the range for 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billionother · made 2026-11-06 | $7.1 billion to $7.5 billionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0001692819-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
Revenue within $7.1B–$7.5B
StrengthensRevenue above $7.5B
InvalidatesRevenue below $7.1B
Vistra raised and narrowed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA to $7.1B-$7.5B and initiated 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $7.7B-$8.5B.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
51
new risk disclosures added
26
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is about unchanged.
New risk disclosure #1
“Other factors may contribute to increased competition in wholesale power markets. We expect that we will continue to face intense competition from numerous companies, including new entrants or consolidation of existing c…”
New risk disclosure #2
“Vistra's use of such attributes is limited under IRC §382 because the merger constituted an "ownership change" with respect to Dynegy. If there is an "ownership change" with respect to Vistra (including by the normal tra…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• changes in law, including judicial decisions, federal, state and local energy, environmental and other regulation and legislation. See " Economic downturns would likely have a material adverse effect on our businesses"…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +560.8% year over year
(553,000,000 − -120,000,000) ÷ 120,000,000 = +560.8% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +213.8% year over year
(305,000,000 − -268,000,000) ÷ 268,000,000 = +213.8% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +2.1% year over year
(4,017,000,000 − 3,933,000,000) ÷ 3,933,000,000 = +2.1% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026Revenue within $7.1B–$7.5B
Strengthens: Revenue above $7.5B · Invalidates: Revenue below $7.1B