Guidance-1
Current guidance was classified as lowered.
Low confidenceSEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 at 4:37 AM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Aug 25, 2026 at 4:37 AM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Weakened
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Strong — cash is doing the heavy lifting
Earnings look cash-backed — accruals are -5.8% of assets, in the strongest quintile of large caps.
CY2024Q3Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2026Q2
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+23.7%
Operating income — year over year
$1.3B vs $1.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+23.2%
Net income — year over year
$785.0M vs $637.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+11.1%
Revenue — year over year
$6.7B vs $6.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: Not available.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No measurable, dated management promises have been verified for this record. | ||||
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
No source-backed deciding threshold is available yet.
Revenue guidance was lowered slightly by about 0.6% to a range of $26.275 to $26.475 billion, while full-year adjusted operating EBITDA was maintained between $8.15 and $8.25 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
21
new risk disclosures added
22
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is slightly less negative.
New risk disclosure #1
“The decline in market prices in 2025 for recyclable commodities resulted in a year-over-year decrease in revenue of $166 million, and 29…”
New risk disclosure #2
“Table of Contents the introduction of new technology and other initiatives, which can result in increased operating expenses and lower net income. If we are unable to negotiate acceptable collective bargaining agreements…”
New risk disclosure #3
“At the time of our acquisition of Stericycle, it was, and had been, involved in certain government investigations, enforcement proceedings, lawsuits and other disputes alleging noncompliance with applicable regulations, …”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +23.7% year over year
(1,253,000,000 − 1,013,000,000) ÷ 1,013,000,000 = +23.7% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +23.2% year over year
(785,000,000 − 637,000,000) ÷ 637,000,000 = +23.2% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +11.1% year over year
(6,684,000,000 − 6,018,000,000) ÷ 6,018,000,000 = +11.1% YoY