Guidance0
Current guidance was classified as maintained.
Low confidenceEarnings thesis change · rubric v1.0
WMB WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC.
Fiscal Q3 FY2026 · quarter ended September 30, 2026 · reported 2026-11-02
SEC filings and exhibits only
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 2, 2026 at 9:16 PM UTC
Earnings filing (8-K) · Latest 10-Q filings
Last updated: Nov 2, 2026 at 9:16 PM UTC
ACCOUNTING RISK · CLEAR
No auditor changes, restatements, late filings, or listing notices in the last 12 months.
from SEC filings · 2026-10-09
Thesis change
Unchanged
Legacy analysis
Legacy analysis: only the dimensions classifiable by the pre-v1 pipeline are shown.
- Legacy analysis: scored by the pre-v1 pipeline; deep evidence has not been re-verified.
- 5 thesis dimension(s) lack comparable evidence
Reported facts
GAAP facts are reported by the company. Comparable figures are EarnIQ arithmetic using only quantified adjustments disclosed in the linked SEC exhibit.
Reported EPS and revenue have not yet been extracted from the filing.
Earnings quality
From 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings. Sloan (1996) accruals: high accruals relative to assets have historically preceded earnings disappointments. Descriptive research, not a prediction.
Average — cash and accruals share the load
Earnings quality is middling — accruals at -8.0% of assets, close to the large-cap median. Neither a red flag nor a clean bill.
CY2021Q4Accruals / assets (TTM)CY2023Q3
Depreciation is disclosed annually by most filers, so quarterly values blend actuals with estimates — flagged on every reading. Method: TTM Sloan accruals ÷ average assets, scored 1–5 by quintile.
1. Three decisive changes
Largest quantified changes versus the company's own history.
+19.7%
Net income — year over year
$827.0M vs $691.0M a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+8.0%
Operating income — year over year
$1.2B vs $1.1B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
+0.2%
Revenue — year over year
$3.1B vs $3.0B a year ago · quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 · from 10-Q XBRL filings.
2. Was it already expected?
Consensus classifications require timestamped pre-report snapshots and eight-quarter surprise history.
| Item | Actual | Expected | Gap | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus comparison coming soon. | ||||
3. Management consistency
Only attributable, measurable and dated commitments are counted. Delivery record: 2 being tracked.
| Promise | Target | Outcome | Status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achieve long-term 11% plus Adjusted EBITDA compound annual growth rate through 2030other · made 2026-11-02 | 11% plus compound annual growth ratethrough 2030 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000107263-26-0000 |
| Tracking toward the upper half of 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $8.3 billion to $8.5 billionother · made 2026-11-02 | $8.3 billion to $8.5 billionFY2026 | — | Pending | 8-K 0000107263-26-0000 |
4. What matters next
One deciding measurable condition plus up to two supporting checkpoints.
The deciding condition
Revenue within $8.3B–$8.5B
StrengthensRevenue above $8.5B
InvalidatesRevenue below $8.3B
Management continues to expect 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 billion to $8.5 billion and growth capex between $7.3 billion and $7.9 billion.
5. Risks that changed
New or materially worsened items only; unchanged boilerplate is omitted.
No new or materially worsened risk has been source-verified.
From 10-K filings · EDGAR
23
new risk disclosures added
27
old ones removed
FY2025 10-K vs prior year, boilerplate filtered out — these are idiosyncratic changes, and tone is about unchanged.
New risk disclosure #1
“• Holders of Williams’ common stock may not receive dividends in the amount expected or any dividends. Risk Factors Risks Related to Business The business, operating results, and financial condition of Williams’, Transco…”
New risk disclosure #2
“• Imbalances in supply and demand whether rising from worldwide or domestic supplies of and demand for natural gas, NGLs, oil, LNG, and related commodities;…”
New risk disclosure #3
“• Make it more difficult for Williams, Transco, and NWP to satisfy their obligations with respect to their indebtedness, which could in turn result in an event of default on such indebtedness; 43…”
6. Evidence drawer
Source location, short anchor and visible arithmetic for every verified claim.
DC1 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Net income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Net income: +19.7% year over year
(827,000,000 − 691,000,000) ÷ 691,000,000 = +19.7% YoYDC2 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Operating income · quarter ended 2026-06-30Operating income: +8.0% year over year
(1,182,000,000 − 1,094,000,000) ÷ 1,094,000,000 = +8.0% YoYDC3 10-Q / 10-K XBRL filings (US-GAAP, via EDGAR)
Revenue · quarter ended 2026-06-30Revenue: +0.2% year over year
(3,053,000,000 − 3,048,000,000) ÷ 3,048,000,000 = +0.2% YoYWN1 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (earnings release, via EDGAR)
Guidance disclosed for Q3 FY2026Revenue within $8.3B–$8.5B
Strengthens: Revenue above $8.5B · Invalidates: Revenue below $8.3B